Edmond and I made plans to "bring our home game to the Commerce" this past Monday. The Commerce has a great program where they will host your regular home game. They provide the dealer, will furnish snacks and will even offer instruction on some new games if you need it. There is no extra fee; they only take their normal rake depending on the stakes played. No crazy wildcard games allowed. You need to stick to the basic games offered at the Commerce, but that does leave you with lots of options (click here to learn more). We were planning on starting with a basic $300-500 stakes NL game and throw in some H-O-R-S-E games if everyone was up for it.

We were pretty excited to play and Dave Mosikian, head of player relations was set to play with our group. However, Dave had some bad back issues Monday afternoon and had to pass. Could it be that he was channeling Kobe Bryant’s back pain from Sunday’s Lakers game? Dave is a big Lakers/Kobe fan and controls the keys to Commerce’s great luxury box at the Staples Center , so that close link to the Laker great is a real possibility.


Dave hosting a bunch of us at the Commerce box

We were all looking forward to playing with Dave so decided to reschedule for the near future when Dave (and Kobe) feels a bit better. Dave, please get some rest. We’ll looking forward to some future donations at the tables! (note: I’m writing this from a plane ride to NYC the night after game 5 and Kobe’s back is getting better so Dave, there will be no more excuses!).

Alternative Plans at the Huslter ‘s Monday Night Tournament
Since my beautiful wife had already given me a poker pass for the night I decided to meet a few of the guys over at the Hustler for the Monday night NL tournament. It’s a $100 buy-in with one optional $100 rebuy. I arrived about 10 minutes late and was seated right away. My very first hand did not start off good at all. I hit tptk with A9, but my opponent turned two pair and took about 600 of my starting 2000 stack. I immediately requested my one optional rebuy ($100 for another 2k in chips) and proceeded to win my $600 back on the very next hand when I turned the nut straight against my opponent’s middle pair.

Crazy Dealer Mistake Costs me Down the Road
Towards the end of the first level a crazy dealer mistake followed by a questionable floor ruling ending up costing me (indirectly!). Two players are in a pot and by the turn the board reads:

AAQx

The woman to the left of me who is fairly active and aggressive goes all-in and is called by her opponent. She turns over QQ for the full-house and her opponent puts his cards down in front of him without turning them up and says "you got me." The dealer starts moving the cards toward the muck, but given that it’s a tournament and the cards need to be shown I stopped him (I was sitting in the 6 seat and the cards were right in front of me) and asked to see them. Here’s the important part – the cards never hit the muck so there was zero doubt what the cards were. The dealer turns over the cards to show Q rag, for two pair. He also claimed to touch the muck with his other hand indicated that the cards were mucked. Of course the river was a third A! The dealer starts moving all of the chips towards the woman but everyone at the table tries to stop him since this should be a split pot. The losing player seems a bit embarrassed and does nothing to stop him, but we all insist on a ruling.

The floorman comes over and the dealer explains what happened. The floorman rules that yes, this is a tournament and the hands need to be turned over and the player cannot muck his cards prior to the river. This is actually important and is used to prevent collusion. However, the floorman says that it is too late to reconstruct the hand so there is nothing he can do. Too late? He didn’t even ask if they had identical stacks because if they did it would be trivial to reconstruct. If the losing player had more than the woman then at worst, they could split the pot and the woman would be BETTER off. In reality the woman had a bit more, maybe 300-400 but he never asked, and the losing player didn’t protest so no attempt was even made to figure it out.
So how did this effect me? Let me explain...

Down to two Chips, but still alive
For the next level or so I fluctuated a bit between 4-5k when a hand came up where I bet the flop against one player (I’m out of position) with TPTK and a backdoor flush draw. My opponent took a long time to call which told me that there was a good chance he had middle pair. The turn paired and brought me 4 to a flush. I’m concerned that he made trips and if I bet he will raise me and I’ll have to fold, but I really want to see the river. I think of just check-calling, but what if he didn’t have middle pair he would probably fold if I bet. I do decide to bet and he does raise me. I take a while to fold and am visibly upset that I bet. This is important because...

On the very next hand I look down at JJ on the button. Blinds are 50/100 and there are two limpers to me. I make it 600 and am very conscious of the fact that it probably looks to anyone who is noticing that I’m steaming from the last hand. It’s a perfect spot for one of the blinds to raise me and the SB obliges by raising to 1400. She is the active player who won an extra 2k because of the floor decision I previously described. It’s folded to me and given that I was expecting her or the BB to raise and have no reason to believe she has me beat, I go all-in. Oops, she immediately calls and shows KK.

Her stack is fairly close to mine and once the count is made we learn that I had her covered by two chips! Looks like it will be an early night, but wait...

Never Count me Out
I get dealt TJo on the next hand and am tempted to just throw in the two chips, but I’m now in the CO and have a full orbit until the blinds hit me so I decide to just wait and see what happens. My patience is rewarded with AQs a few hands later. I toss my chips in the middle and a few people come along. My AQ holds up for the side pot and I’m now up to 250. It’s a start.

I fold a few hands and now I’m UTG and have a decision to make. I only have K8s, but on the next hand I’ll be in the BB and will basically have to play any hand. Also, if I put my chips in now there’s a chance that everyone will fold to the blinds so I’ll only have to beat 1-2 others. If I wait there could be a limped community pot and I might have to outlast a ton of players. Looks like playing my K8s makes the most sense so I do. A few players join in the pot, but a flopped K gives me hope. When the dust settles a paired board on the turn actually killed my chances of a substantial win, but I do split the sidepot with my opponent’s K3 and I’m now at 400.

On the next hand the blinds go up to 100/200 and I’m in the BB. An EP player raises to 600, a few players call and the button pushes. I have A9 and call and 2 other players call. Believe it or not I have the best hand PF. The button was trying to muscle everyone out with KQ and the other players called with suited connectors. I don’t pair my cards but neither did anyone. I win a pretty nice sidepot and am now up to around 1800. Pretty nice orbit.

Three Strikes (mistakes?) and You’re Out
Not sure if any of the next three hands are serious mistakes but I have second thoughts about all of them. Here’s how they went down:

1) Two hands later I’m on the button with AJo and push. The BB is contemplating calling me and while I’m 99.9% sure that I have a better hand I am so happy to be back in the game that I really don’t want to be sucked out on and would rather just take down the pot right there so I open my trap and tell him that I have a really strong hand and will show him if he folds. He says he has a good hand too, and I say that "you’ll need to suck out, but if that’s what you want to do, you should." After a minute or two he folds KQ face-up. I really should have invited the call and I’m almost certain that he would have called if I just shut up. Of course it would have been about a coinflip, but at that point I should have welcomed the call; especially given that his range likely had an A or J so I would have been a nice favorite to his range. Stupid!

2) I get moved to a new table and find myself UTG with AQ and about 2200 in chips. A standard raise isn’t an option here since I will be pot committed on any flop. I could limp and push against any raiser or just see the flop for only 200 if nobody raises. I decide to push, which is standard of course, but again, I need to be taking a little creative risk here. I really didn’t like the push once I thought it through, but that’s what I did and I won another 300 when everyone folded.

3) On the very next hand the HJ makes it 1k (BB still 200) and it’s folded to me. I look down at TT. I don’t know anything about the HJ’s game but my quick read is that he is a regular and knows what he is doing. He had a called a few players by name and he is in his mid 40’s-early 50’s.

My thought process here was way too quick and missed a lot of the necessary factors. I decide that he’s aggressive and I just cannot fold TT when I’m short-stacked. I called, he turns over AA and I’m out.

Here’s the problem... If I would have spent a bit more time thinking it through and tried harder to put him on a range I probably would have realized that I could narrow it down given his 5xBB bet. What could he possibly have that I would want to see? The only hand in his range that I really want to see is 99. AK is possible and wouldn’t be too bad, but that’s it. When he makes it 5xBB he almost certainly has 99+/KK. Maybe 88 or AQ, but unlikely.

Do you agree?
The good news is that it was not very costly, the Hustler is only 30 minutes from my house and I got home relatively early. I have to say that it was a fun time. What more could I ask for? Perhaps a final table finish and check?

** BTW, during the break I approached the floorman and discussed his decision on the all-in. His first reaction was that he couldn’t reconstruct the pot at that time, but when I pointed out that he never even asked any questions of the players so how would he know -- he reconsidered. He told me that he was tired and having a bad day and that everyone makes mistakes. He further pointed out that the player never protested and defended himself. If the player did he probably would have come around and tried to split the pot in an equitable manner.

So the lesson here is to always fight for your rights when you believe in your position! I admire the floorman for admitting his mistake. I have always been impressed with the Hustler’s staff and this night did nothing to change my opinion!

Podiman called two weeks to say that he’s coming out to LA for a visit and was to play in the Bicycle Club’s Stars and Stripes tournament this week. I had been planning on playing a few events anyway so we made plans to meet up at the event.

The event was Tuesday night and was a NL event with a $335 buy-in with one optional re-buy during the first 3 levels. The structure is excellent for a one day night-time start. We were given 3,000 chips and blinds started at 25/25 with 30 minute levels. The levels moved for the first few levels to 25/50, 50/100, 100/200 and then 100/200 with a 25 ante so there was quite a bit of play for a while; especially so if you bought in for another 3,000 chips for $300.

I really wasn’t feeling very good so decided to just see how things went before purchasing a rebuy. I realize that if you are going to rebuy you should do it right at the start, but I just felt I would see how things went for a while.


Podiman is at the head of the able in the 7 seat

There were about 130 people seated at the event. I didn’t recognize anyone at my table, but at least 3-4 were clearly regulars who didn’t completely suck. The guy to my direct left was a very friendly and chatty fellow from the mideast. On the very first hand he raised, everyone folded and he proceeded to show his hand to the guy to his direct left who was a quadriplegic on a respirator. He had a friend with him who would show him the cards and make all bets. I asked the mideastern guy to see the cards too and he showed me KK. He mentioned that he had played with the other guy a few days ago and that every time the guy raised him and the hand went to showdown the guy had KK (remember that thought – I didn’t!).

On the second hand of the night I’m dealt A7s in mid-position. I limped and the button raised to 100. The BB called so I decided to call too. The flop came A65 rainbow. I check to the button who raises to 150. The BB folds. I don’t really love my situation here and try to get a read on the buttom. I had recently read an article in Bluff magazine written by former FBI profiler Joe Navarro. I had previously read a great book by Joe titled Read’em and Reap written with Phil Hellmuth. It’s one of the most useful poker books I have read and right after reading it I had a great session in a Vegas NL cash game using some of the reads I picked up in the book. This article discussed how the lips are the best tell a person shows (next to the feet). Most people think it’s the hands or eyes, but Joe believes it’s the lips. Anyway, I look at the guy on the button and I immediately notice that his lips are really tense and he’s holding them together. The other striking thing was that his lips had gotten really small. Joe says that when a player is confident their lips fill with the blood and they are very full. Well this guy’s lips were disappearing. If Joe says this guy is bluffing and nervous who am I to argue. I call.

A blank hits the turn and I check again. The guy now bets 250. Shit, I would normally fold in this situation with my kicker but the guy’s lips are freak’en non-existent now. I got him, so I call! A blank again on the river. No way he can bet without the A, right? He bets 500 now. Oh, geez… enough with the tell, it’s the 2nd hand of the tournament. I can’t call again, if he’s willing to fire at every street. I fold.

One thing that Joe always says in his book is that you need to establish a base behavior. I had only been playing with the guy for two hands and really hadn’t studied him much. One thing I noticed after playing with him a bit was that he is one of those people with very small lips. So my read really had no validity. This guy was lipless! So much for that read.

I mentioned that there were a few players who didn’t suck. Well there were also a few who did. How about this hand. Three people see a limped a flop of QJT with 3 hearts so there’s 75 in the pot. This woman bets 400. What? Can it be more obvious that she either has a made straight or a low flush? So she either wins 50 right there or gets called by a better flush. Of course the second is what happens, actually not really because two people call. The turn is a blank and now she goes all-in which again is rather odd given that she must know that she’s beat… oh, that’s right, she’s not very good. One guy calls, she turns over a low flush and her opponent has a better flush. The river actually paired the board and the guy who folded would have had a full house but he had no business calling the flop.

For the next two hours I am basically card dead. I play a few hands of the raise/continuation bet/fold to reraise variety but nothing much. Most times when I’m on the buttom if I raise or limp after several limpers are in the pot, the BB (who is the quadriplegic guy) will raise or reraise. He has done this at least 3-4 times in the first few levels. Now my assessment of the situation is that he does not have hands all the time and he is just making moves. I partly base this on what I would do, but also the fact that he is clearly going through a ton of effort to come here and play so he can not be a typical tight nit who only raises strong hands. A lot of local LA regulars stop by to say hello, so he most likely knows what he is doing. I make a mental note that if I do have a strong hand on the buttom I will plan on slow playing it and get him to raise me which I’m confident he will do.

The only two hands I pick up for the first few levels are QQ and KK. I do get a bit of action both times and manage to get my stack back to the initial 3k starting amount when we hit the first break after the 50/100 level. This also represents the last time we can rebuy which I decide not to rebuy. First of all, I’m just not feeling it. Second, I realize that I will be only left with 15 BB when we come back, but I don’t think my table is very tough and there are a few very loose players who I believe will double me up if I can pick up a few hands. Also, I still am counting on reraising the BB when I’m on the button if the situation is right which should give me some chips.

On the very first hand back from the break with blinds at 100/200 I get into a blind vs. blind unraised hand and manage to win about 600 chips when my mideastern pal calls my value bet on the river. I had 3rd pair but was pretty sure I was good. On the very next hand 3 people limp to my button and I look down at 97o. Nothing too great, but now I decide that I can put my plan into action. I limp too with the plan to reraise all-in if the BB raises. Sure enough the SB calls and the BB raises to 700 so there is now 1900 in the pot. Everyone folds to me, so everything seems perfect. I quickly do the math. I have about 3300 left so he will have to call 2600 to win 4500. He needs a real hand. He would still be left with 2500 or so if he lost, but he’s not going to call me without a premium hand and I really think his range is practically any two cards. I having done anything out of line so there is no reason why he she put me on a move. Seems like an easy decision. I had a plan, everything seems to have fallen right into place so why not? I push. He immediately calls. Oops. What do you think he has? Have you been paying attention? It’s obvious right… KK. I don’t improve. Oh, well.

In summary, it was a very well run tournament, we had lots of play, there was a good turnout and I followed a plan. My move may have looked like a total blowup to the folks I was playing with and perhaps to you (and maybe it was!), but I really have no regrets. I guess my only regret was not to rebuy right from the start.

I will definitely be making my way back to the Bike for at least one more event during the series. Send me a private message if you have plans to go down to the Bike and want to meet up!

On a positive note, Podiman made it 14th for $900. While I was still in it he suffered two brutal beats where he twice was all-in on the turn and had his opponents dominated and both times they hit runner-runner cards to beat him. When I left he had about 12k in chips which was above average but he would have had 25k if the suckouts didn’t happen. On a second positive note, Podiman mentioned that my quadriplegic opponent who I donated my chips to had a big stack and looked to be a shoo-in to make the final table. The guy goes through so much effort to play this game. I really wish him well! If anyone knows his name please let me know. If you look at the pic below you can see him in the table to the bottom right. In fact, the guy standing up looks to be taking my seat!

David, out friend from the Commerce, sent me a text message informing me that he had 5 tickets to the Commere’s private suite at Staples Center. This would be the first game back for the Lakers from a their longest road trip in team history (and most successful). Plus it was Gasol’s first game at home for the Lakers so this was no ordinary game. David… you’re the man!

I invited a few of our Featured Bloggers. The Commerce was nice enough to send a limo to take the guys over to Staples. Sirwatts, Thayer, Vivek and their buddy and Adam’s roommate Ray (exitonly4) joined me.


Sirwatts and Vivek


Dave and Thayer grab some treats


Exitonly4 enjoys watching the Lakers crush the Hawks



Oh, did I mention that Norm MacDonald from SNL weekend update fame showed up? As many of you know, Norm has the poker bug and plays quite a bit. He was featured prominently during this year’s WSOP telecast. I believe he had the chip lead after day one of one of this year’s events.

A sick prop bet, and bad beat for lakong!

With about a little over a minute left in the first half the Lakers were leading 64-28 and it looked like the Lakers would easily double the Hawks’ score. Norm wanted to bet that they wouldn’t so I suggested we make a $20 prop bet on this. The Hawks could not make a basket and the lakers went up 69-28 with 53 second left.

Norm took out $20 and tried to hand it to me, but I wouldn’t take it. I didn’t want to jinx the bet. The Hawks hit a 3 with 42 seconds left to cut the lead to 69-31 and then Kobe makes it 71-31 with 31 seconds left so now it seems certain I will win until Richardson hits his second 3 point shot to make it 71-34 with 19 seconds left. The Lakers can now run out the clock, but Gasol gets fouled with 2.9 seconds left and makes only 1 shot. Everyone in the booth is now into this and we all realize that the foul might just cost me the bet.

The Hawks take it out under the Lakers’ basket, the guy throws it down to half court to Childress who takes a few dripples and throws up a three point shot. We have the perfect angle and it looks like it just might… maybe, who knows… oh, no… swish!!!

Final score at half time 73-37!!! We were all cracking up. It was hysterical. The best bet I ever lost.



I’m not sure what the fingers are supposed to mean. Dave wanted me to make the loser sign, but Norm suggested something about us doubling our fingers. Not sure, but heck, I just follow orders!

Here’s the

score breakdown if you want to see this for yourselves.

We didn’t really watch much of the second half. Norm and his friend Lori Jo were great fun and we discussed poker, politics and all kinds of other subjects. Everyone had a great time and of course the Lakers went on to win. What more can you ask for? A perfect night all around.



After the game the limo came to drive the guys back to the Commerce and Norm, Lorie Joe, David and me went to the Pacific Dining Car for a late dinner. Didn’t get home until 1:30-2am, but it was well worth it!

I made it out to the Commerce last Friday night (February 1st) for the $545 NL event #8 of the LA Poker Classic. Approximately 550 runners showed up for the event and they paid 55. We started with 2500 in chips, 40 minute levels and a 25/25 starting level. The structure was pretty good for a preliminary event. You can download all of the structures at the Commerc's tournament page – just click on the event name to access a word file with the structure.


I got to my seat a few minutes after the start time and missed one hand. I wish I missed two! On the second hand I’m on the button with 78 and two limpers to me. I make it 100 to go and they both call. The flop comes K75r and they both check so I make it 200. One guy checks. Great start, Scot. I decide I’m going to shut down until I see an A on the turn and my opponent appears to be very uncomfortable with it. He checks and I decide to give it another shot with a 300 bet. He calls. I’m probably drawing dead and the blank on the river doesn’t alter my opinion. My opponent fires and I muck after pretending that I have a decision. Great start!!!

I shut it down for a while and nothing much happens for the next hour or so. I lose a few small pots and blind down a bit to around 1400. At the start of the 3rd level with blinds of 50/100 we’re told that we have one more hand until we move tables. I’m in the sb with 57o and there are 4 limpers to me and I complete. The BB checks and we see a flop of 55T. Bingo! I have 1400 left and there is 600 in the pot. I could check and let some more money in the pot but I feel that a push here would really look weak and I’m bound to get a call by any ten and one of the 5 guys must have a T… right? So I do push and UTG goes into the tank. He clearly has a T and is very confused by my move. Now the fun starts. The CO who has plenty of chips counts out 1400 and puts it clearly in front of him like he is going to call. I’m really pissed off here, because it’s a move to get the guy to fold and I would like to get both of them to call. The UTG guy is not looking close to a decision so I force him to make one by calling the clock. He ends up folding as the clock is counted down and everyone else folds! He says he had KT and didn’t call because of the other player. I am pissed. I tell the guy who counted out his chips that his move was completely uncalled for. What was the point? I had already made the bet, so what is he trying to accomplish if he was always folding. He didn’t think he did anything wrong and I really was in no mood for a fight so I calmly moved on to my new table.

The new table was great. Lots of weak players and the weakest were on my left. Problem was, I was still fairly short stacked and needed some chips. So after an orbit or so I’m in the BB and 5 people limp to me. I look down at ATs and push. The UTG player had been slowplaying AQ and quickly called. Great. Well it was great as the flop came 789 giving me hope and a T on the turn giving me the lead. The river was a blank and now I was in business and could play a bit.

For the next hour, play I did. I raised any two cards from late position in the CO or Button virtually every single orbit, unless of course there was a raise in front of me and then I often RR. The blinds often folded right away. When one of the blinds would call he would check every flop and I would make a Phil Hellmuth type small bet and he folded 100% of the time. Nice. I built my stack up to about 7k when I made my big mistake of the tournament...

I have AA UTG and make it 600 at 100/200 blinds (there was a 50 ante at this point). The button, who had only 1800 called me which I found very weird. The flop comes AQ5 with two diamonds. The right move here is to just check on both flop and turn because he has to bet one of the streets… doesn’t he? Anyway, I did not do that. I felt that if he’s calling a third of his stack he has to have a good A or a strong pair. Doesn’t he? Even with a pair why not push preflop? So I really felt he had the case A and would call a push. Well I misread the situation, because he folded to my push. So I lost his 1200 in chips which I should have easily won, but the worst part was that he doubled up on the next hand and then on the next hand he pushes with 2400 in chips and I find 99 in the blind and call. He has AK and wins the race so I effectively lose 3600 by not slowplaying my AA. Oh, well.

I chip up a bit more and then call a small stack push with A9 and lose to his K5. I then go completely card dead for the next few hours but manage to stay above water with a steal or two per orbit when the situation is right. I also make 2-3 re-steals which all work without showing any cards. I do get AK and a few middle pairs, but never get called.

So my stack fluctuates between a very modest 5000-8000 but I never can get it above the 8k mark. One of the main problems I had was that a guy directly to my right was always at about the same stack size as me and he kept beating me into the pot and I never had a hand I could call him with.

The worst part about being so card dead was watching one particular guy go from 7k in chips to 50k in chips in about 30 minutes. The guy was a machine. He did play well and made a few impressive calls, but he also won about 5 straight races.

It’s now close to 11pm (the tournament started at 3:30pm) and somehow I’m almost at the money bubble. There were 60 left and they were paying 53. 53rd paid about 1100 (it turned out that they paid 54th and 55th too). I just could not find a hand for orbit after orbit and blinds just went up to 600/1200 with a 200 ante and I am now down to 4500. I do the math and realize that if I go through the blinds one more time I will only have 2x the BB and I’ll need to win a hand at showdown. I feel like I must make a move if the situation is even so-so prior to the blinds hitting me. In MP I’m deal T8s and it’s folded to me so I feel this is the time. Turns out, it wasn’t. Everyone folds to the BB who wakes up with TT and I’m out.

Could I have waiting? I guess in hindsight, of course. I might have even folded to the money or just keep waiting for that one hand, but it hadn’t happened in hours so there was no reason to believe it would happen in the next two orbits.

Did I miss any opportunities to steal earlier? I don’t think so. I really played as aggressively as I could given my stack size and my opponents. The AA hand definitely hurt me. If I had an additional 3.5k it really would have allowed me early opportunities to play around a little more.
Anyway, I had no regrets.

The tournament was very well run. They had a nice food/refreshment area set up on the tournament floor level and the food voucher was honored in the buffet restaurant. The buffet was quite good and was about a $25 value. I ate with two guys from the military who had recently served in Iraq. Really nice guys (one of them was the good sport who slowplayed the AQ against my AT). I also liked the 3:30pm start time. I made it quite far, but still got to get some sleep. In most tournaments if you make it that far and get busted it’s probably around 2-3 in the am.

Had to drop off some tworags/commerce promotional cards at the Commerce this afternoon and even though I didn't have much time to play I couldn't resist at least a little action so I dropped $400 down at the $5/10 NL (400 max) table, ordered some chicken kabobs - food is free at these limits - and began a quick session. Only had about an hour to play, but what the heck.

I observed for a few hands. Many hands went unraised and almost all reasonable raises in the $15-25 range got called by at least one or two players. This was also one of these weird games where every hand seemed to be won by a nut flush or fullhouse.

After about an orbit I'm dealt A9 in the SB and complete with 4 limpers in front of me. Flop comes with two diamonds and I make it $30. Two people call. The turn brings the flush and I make it $75 and one guy calls. The board pairs which worries me just a bit, but I decide to make it $100 (kind of a value bet) and might consider folding to a push. He folds.

Played a few other meaningless hands before this one comes up. I'm in the BB and UTG makes it $20 and 5 people call! I look down at Q5 and call. The flop comes 557. Nice. I probably need to check, but most people don't bet the 5, so I decide to lead out with $50. One guy calls. The turn is the nasty 7 for 5577. The SB makes it $100. Hmmm. I'm having a hard time putting him on a hand I can beat. Now if he was super confident that I had a 5, then his bet is brilliant, but how can he be that confident? My lead on the flop could easily be a 7, an overpair or a bluff. In fact, more often than not it isn't a 5. On the other hand, if he had a 7, then why lead? I decided that he might lead, because if I don't have a 7 he assumes I'll check. I ended up folding. It seemed like the right decision here. Any thoughts?

The only other semi-interesting hand was this. I have AKo in EP, and make it $20. The HJ calls (he only has another $60 or so behind), the CO makes it $100. I have about $320 left so I really have only two options, I'm not deep enough to call and fold on the flop. I decide to do the only reasonable thing here (at least to my warped mind) and push. Of course the HJ calls and the CO calls too. The board brings all low cards, but 3 spades. The short-stack had KsJs and the CO had the same AK as me, so I lost about $80 on the hand. Not sure how good a call it was for the other AK guy -- probably pretty close. Let's see:

He is calling $220 into a $520ish pot, so he's getting more than 2-1, but what can he reasonably put me on? I raised, there was a caller and he RR. It sure looks like my range is QQ, KK, AA, AK. It's probably close. Just did an Evaluator scenario and it looks to be about BE. Take a look here.

Nothing more happens and I lose about half of my buy-in. No big hands, no terrible hands, just lots of small bleeding over the 1.5 hour session.

One crazy hand to note just as I'm stacking my chips. A guy goes all-in for $250 and shows me his TT. Another guy calls. The guy called so fast that the TT guy is worried about an overpair, but then the flop comes 678o and the turn is a 9 so Mr. TT seems golden. The river brings another 8. The opponent turns over 99. Can you believe that? Let's do some calculations on the QuickOdds program:

Preflop he's an 82% favorite
On flop he's a 76% favorite
On turn he's still a 73% favorite

I guess it wasn't as bad as it seemed. The straight draw on the flop and trips on the turn kept it closer than it looked at the end.