General/p6: Getting Even

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It's the business we've chosen

It's not personal.

In the Godfather: Part II, there’s a scene where Hyman Roth discusses the murder of his Las Vegas friend Moe Green with Michael Corleone.

“There was this kid I grew up with - he was younger than me. Sorta looked up to me - you know. We did our first work together - worked our way out of the street. Things were good, we made the most of it. During Prohibition - we ran molasses into Canada - made a fortune - you father, too. As much as anyone, I loved him - and trusted him. Later on he had an idea - to build a city out of a desert stop-over for GI's on the way to the West Coast. That kid's name was Moe Green - and the city he invented was Las Vegas. This was a great man - a man of vision and guts. And there isn't even a plaque - or a signpost - or a statue of him in that town! Someone put a bullet through his eye. No one knows who gave the order - when I heard it, I wasn't angry; I knew Moe - I knew he was head-strong, talking loud, saying stupid things. So when he turned up dead - I let it go. And I said to myself, this is the business we've chosen - I didn't ask who gave the order - because it had nothing to do with business!

You can see the last line here…

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Nice hand, sir!

The other day a friend of mine (newer player) called me up steaming. He had just left the Hustler Casino following a nasty beat after he had moved all in pre-flop with KK v villain’s 87o. He said, “I just looked at this guy. I mean who calls an all-in with 87o for two hundred dollars? I had only been there like 10 minutes but I was so pissed I just picked up and left.”

I said to him, “Let me get this right. You left a game with a guy on your right who was willing to call off his stack when he was, at best, a 2 to 1 dog against an unknown player? That’s stupid, sure…but you’re even more stupid for leaving. Instead of calling for your keys, you should have been calling for chips!”

I went further. “Listen. Yeah, you had a dream spot there, but the ugly truth is that 20% of the time you’re going get cracked. And when there’s a lot at stake, it’s gonna suck. You see the KK v 87o and mentally book the win at 100%, but 20 times out of 100, the chips go elsewhere. If you can’t come to grips with that, DON’T PLAY THE GAME. Seriously.”

After a little self-reflection on his part and additional love from me, “What? You want 8 guys in there leaning on you with good cards all the time? Wake up.”, I think he got it. I felt a little bit like Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glen Ross* but he’s gonna be a better player for it. My conscience is clear.

"Running bad" you say?

A little while later, I was talking to another friend who was complaining that he’s been “running bad.” What is that? A downswing? Variance? Come on. It’s just the math at work and the math works the same for everybody. If we all played the same, our short term swings would vary but our long-term results graph would look the same. The fact that our longer term results differ means one thing—some players are good (or constantly improving) and others aren’t. You’re either playing well, marginally or badly. The math is just there sorting it all out.

When a player believes he’s “running badly”, I think he should ask “Am I playing well or poorly?” and be HONEST with himself. If he’s making good decisions, his concerns should be bankroll management, game selection and getting more hands or tournaments in. If he’s making sub par decisions or doesn’t honestly know if he’s playing well or poorly, he should take the time to study, review hands and retool his game. The only player that I see on televised events consistently talking about “running bad” is Mike Matusow. Funny, most of the decisions I see him make on TV are horrible. He “runs badly”? Gee, what a shocker.

It's just business.

In contrast, I have a friend who used to be a professional blackjack player. He and his partners would look for favorable casino conditions, play basic strategy and watch for edges. When the deck was favorable, they’d press their edge as much as possible and let the math sort it out. Of course, they had downswings but there was no talk of “running bad”. They would shrug variance off as part of the business. To manage downswings, they relied on bankroll management and simply looked for MORE opportunities to put money to work with an edge. They made a great living.

In short, Hyman Roth got it right. He didn’t bitch when a good friend got shot because he knew from an early age it was the nature of the business. Hence, he avoided the mental anguish of the emotional swings of his business. Harsh? Yeah, but the applicability is there for a successful poker player. Bad beats, downswings, variance…whatever. Learn to deal with it or find another way to make a living. It’s the business we’ve chosen.

Edmond


Postscript...

* In the movie Glengarry Glen Ross, there’s a scene in which Blake (played by Alec Baldwin) is sent in to kick a group of under-performing salesman into gear. For most of the movie, the salesmen bemoan the working conditions, the lifestyle and the quality of the leads they get from headquarters. Blake will have none of it.

It’s a great scene with classic lines and must see viewing for anyone in any kind of sales. If you haven’t quoted “Put down that coffee. Coffee is for CLOSERS only.”, you need to find a spot for it!

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The Fat Man Sings

On Friday last, I was inspired by Pechorin's recent run through Europe and weighed my immediate options for a live poker tourney fix. Hmmm….I could head down to Redondo Beach for the soft home tournament I deal for a friend. Alternatively, lakong wanted me to come with him to the California State Poker Championships. The CSPC is a bigger field of better players (obv), but on a Friday afternoon that West LA to Commerce run is an even worse drive than the one to Redondo Beach. My home game host also pitched that he’s restocked the Jack Daniels, pushed back the start time to let me duck the worst of Friday afternoon traffic and adjusted the blind structure like I’ve suggested. Ok, Redondo it is.

New & Improved

We start with 3000 chips (5/10 blinds, 15 minute levels), run about 4 hours and pay 3 spots. If we finish early and there’s interest, we run a second one. I serve as the principal dealer and ad hoc floor person by virtue of my ability to shuffle, calculate side pots and interpret the dead button rule, all while under the influence of alcohol. Friday, we drew about 12 guys and ran a $100 freeze-out with 50% to the winner.

As I mentioned in earlier posts, several of the players in the game lack fundamentals and make plays that are hilarious or nauseating depending on whether or not they hit their 4-outer. One player in particular has, to date, shown little or no sense of hand values or judgment in the times we’ve played. That said, he’s a nice guy and anxious to learn, so I’ve given him a couple of basic books to get a better handle on the game.

Last night the improvements in his play were noticeable. He’s playing fewer hands, betting his good hands (he used to slow play any decent hand) and showing down quality. Unfortunately, another player in our group (the host) didn’t really pick up on it.

Midway through the tournament with the blinds at 150/300, UTG raised to 1000 and it folded around to the DB (our host), who called. Small blind folded and New & Improved player announced a re-raise to 3000. UTG min-raiser promptly re-raised all-in and DB… called. WTF? They show down…

QQ (UTG) v 66 (host) v JJ (New & Improved)

The queens held and our host was out. New & Improved player had both players covered courtesy of an earlier boat, so he survived the beat and continued.

On the break, the host came up to me, “My call with the sixes was a bad call, right?” Not one to sugarcoat, I told him that no, it was moronic. “Well you know New & Improved. He could have anything. I figured he’d have something stupid like 97 or KJ.” Are you brain dead? He’s playing different tonight—tighter, more card and board aware—and he’s shown great hands all night. And what about the UTG player?

Follow your head...or don't

In any event, he was out and I was still in. I continued to deal and play ABC poker and, as expected, the field thinned to 6 or so after a couple of hours. The key point in the tournament came with the blinds at 150/300 when it was limped to me in the big blind with K5o. Flop is a nifty KT5 and I led out with a half-pot bet, about 20% of my stack. One caller to the dealer button, who shoved. I called, of course, and the other player shrugged and said “I guess I have to call.”

We show K5 v KJ v AQ and I’m dodging fishhooks for the win.

Hold…I burn and turn a Q…hold…I burn and river a blank. K5 goot!

Down to four players, I was a slight chip leader but everyone was pretty evenly stacked. I dealt out a new hand and as players were checking their hole cards, another player started chop talk.

I was on the DB with AQo and curious to see how this developed but I stuck to my usual “I’m good either way. Whatever you guys want.” The small blind, heretofore open to chop talk, was suddenly uninterested in a deal. “Let’s play for a bit.” Uh, noted. We played on but I was concerned about the small blind now.

The blinds were 300/600 and with a fold to me, I raised my AQo to 2400. SM insta-called and the big blind folded. Careful, Edmond.

Flop came AJT rainbow. SB checked to me. What hands would make him duck a chop…probably TT+, ATo+. The only hands I really wanted him to have here are KK, QQ or AQ…and I had a Q so that made AQ and QQ less likely. Whatever, I shoved anyway. It’s a home game, right? He beat me to the pot and I expected the worst when he turned over…A9. Ok, so much for my ability to read a player. Thank god I didn’t have the good judgment to follow it.

My AQ held and now I was the monster stack. The other players were beside themselves and howled at A9 player for loading me up. Feeling generous, I offered the following chop “If you want, I’ll take the winner’s share and you guys can split the rest.” They took it immediately, I pocketed the six hundie and we were on to tournament #2.

As we’re setting up, New & Improved took me aside and said, “I was surprised you would let us chop with a big stack like that.” I confided in him, “Uh, you know I can’t win MORE than the winner’s share, right?” He’s obviously not at that chapter yet.

Rinse & repeat

Ten of the original twelve stuck around for the second tournament, this one for a $60 buy-in. Again, I ground my way down to the final three not getting out of line with anything. I’d normally be more aggressive late (these guys LOVE to fold near the money), but I could tell the player to my left wanted to go home. Last thing I wanted was him calling my T5o button shove light. Sure enough, a few hands later, he raised with J9 and called a shove for 30 BBs. J9 < AKo and we were down to two. The other player and I then chopped for 1st and 2nd place money with a little premium for the dealer.

At this point, it was about 1a. I was net $700 on the evening not counting drinks and goodwill generated. Meanwhile, lakong sent me a voicemail that he’d chopped a satellite but pretty much fizzled in the CAPC event. Meh, sometimes it’s better to take the sure thing.

Opera in a poker blog? WTF?

You may know that last week the music world lost a giant when tenor Luciano Pavarotti succumbed to pancreatic cancer. Unlike many classical music or opera stars, Pavarotti was open to other genres and made his music more accessible via charity concerts and collaborative duets with such artists as Bono, Meatloaf, Queen, James Brown, Barry White, et al.

He was launched into popular culture well past his prime after a performance of Nessun Dorma for the opening ceremony of the 1990 World Cup in Italy. It’s an aria from the final act of Puccini’s opera Turandot and became his signature piece. You can see him singing it at the closing ceremony of the 2006 Winter Olympics at Torino, Italy below. Not bad for “past his prime”, right?

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He spent the latter part of his career pretty much phoning it in to opera houses (one critic put it succinctly…”he reminded me of a friendly stagehand who'd wandered onstage in the middle of an opera and decided to make the best of it.”) and printing multi-platinum CDs with Placido Domingo and Jose Carreras, aka The Three Tenors.

No opera critic ever gave him the high marks for his Three Tenors gigs that he’d have pulled for one of his 70s era performances of La Boheme, but audiences loved the crossover work, and on his worst day, he could easily hold his own with likes of Bono and Meatloaf. Furthermore, selling out a stadium paid better than selling out the Metropolitan Opera House. Play with worse players and get paid more? Pavarotti understood the value of good game selection. RIP, sir…you were a MONSTER.

Nice Potts

Fast forward to the summer of 2007 when Paul Potts, a contestant on Britain’s Got Talent (an American Idol type show in the UK), sings Nessun Dorma in his audition as seen below. It’s perhaps better titled “Cell phone salesman in bad suit sings Puccini and stuns Simon Cowell and 2,000 members of the audience to tears...”

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Potts ultimately won the entire competition, beating the odds maker favorite, a talented 6-year-old girl singing Somewhere Over the Rainbow. He released an album and the single of that aria reached #2 on the UK charts, the highest position ever for a classical recording.

Believe it or not, there’s a lesson in these two performances for poker players. First, however talented you are, there’s value in good game selection. Exposing others to your talents may turn you on to a bigger market that can have a dramatic impact on your bankroll. Less competition for better money? Put your ego away and your wallet will prosper. Second, as the host of my home game learned, you need to remember that the guy that looks like a donk may, in fact, have real talent. Be careful how you judge him on first glance; he may just leave you stunned and sobbing.

Still digging,

Edmond

The Big Picture: Hollywood Bowl Movie Night

Ok, time for an off-topic trip report to provide a little balance to my recent posts. Sunday night, my wife and I joined another couple in their box at the Hollywood Bowl for Movie Night in which the Hollywood Bowl orchestra plays music from movies to clips from the movies themselves. It’s an annual performance held at the end of the summer season, and this year the Bowl chose Paramount Pictures as the studio from which they’d select movies.

The evening was hosted by Leonard Nimoy (aka Mr. Spock, now 77 years old and still energetic) and featured Paramount classics like..

The Godfather
Star Trek
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Mission Impossible
Love Story
Breakfast at Tiffany’s
Grease
Titanic

At one point, my friend’s wife confided that she had never seen the Godfather (either I or II)—uh, wow, since my friend is Sicilian by heritage and quotes it daily. A few clips later my wife confessed that she’s never seen any of the Raiders of the Lost Ark movies. WTF? You're not familiar with Indiana Jones? How did this get past the due diligence team? A few clips later, a clip from Grease came on and the orchestra broke into Summer Nights. Both our wives immediately reacted and said they’d seen the movie “maybe twenty times”. Ok, this is ridiculous.

I’m pretty sure I don’t know a guy who’s NOT seen all the Godfather films and Raiders at least once. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be shocked if a friend of mine said he’d passed on the opportunity to see John Travolta singing and dancing as a 1950s high-schooler. I don’t profess to understand my wife or women generally, but in the future, if someone asks me to explain the differences, I think this is an excellent reference point. “It’s like this. Guys like the Godfather. Women like Grease. Just do the best you can with that.”

One thing we all did agree on is that Audrey Hepburn was awesome in Breakfast at Tiffany’s. The movie came out in 1961, so it predates even me, and I saw it for the first time just a few years ago. If you haven’t ever seen an Audrey Hepburn movie, you owe it to yourself and your wife or girlfriend to fire up the DVD. I guarantee you’ll enjoy it—Hepburn as an escort/socialite, George Peppard as a struggling writer (pre-A Team), Buddy Ebsen (after he was the Tin Man but before he was Jed Clampett) and Mickey Rooney as a Japanese neighbor. Sounds wacky, but it’s charming stuff.

If you’re ever in Los Angeles for Labor Day weekend, make an effort to get up to the Bowl for Movie Night. The Bowl is an outdoor amphitheatre and there’s not a bad seat in the place. Score some tickets, bring some food and a bottle of good wine and watch some great clips to superb scores in a very cool setting. I recommend it!

The re-buy period is now OVER.

Tilt or just bad play?

I’m not sure how many readers follow macroeconomic events, but the recent market developments are worth observing, even if you’re not invested. A number of market participants—hedge funds, complacent investors, CNBC, et al.—would argue that the stock market’s on tilt, and all that’s necessary to settle the market back into its A game is a rate cute and calm nerves. I’d argue that the market’s recent swings are more the result of poor discipline by investors and consumers—overvaluing marginal hands out of position—and that the bankroll impact of that lack of discipline is just starting.

Earlier this year, the credit markets began to unravel (that is, borrowers had trouble funding loans) when several sub-prime lenders (lenders to homeowners with less than stellar credit) began to wobble and, in some cases, liquidate. Then in July, a couple of large hedge funds (investment funds for institutions and wealthy individuals) showed heavy losses from these investments causing many to reassess their investment criteria.

Within a matter of days, a few large bond financings (deals to finance corporate buyouts) stalled in the market, causing investors to then rethink other bonds they held in their portfolios. Investors began pulling money out of funds and many banks began liquidating large portfolios of loans. The end result has been a rapid deterioration of companies’ and individuals’ ability to borrow as easily as they could even 2-3 months ago.

”Just open-shove! It’s a re-buy!”

In the old days, when you wanted to buy a house, you had to pony up a 20-30% down payment and, if your credit was good, you would then borrow the balance in a 15 or 30-year mortgage. When the housing market took off over the last few years, competition for new loans was so fierce lenders began offering “creative” mortgages—interest-only loans, adjustable rate loans, no income verification loans, etc. In addition, they offered many loans to borrowers who were poor credit risks (aka sub-prime borrowers). The end result was that home ownership, a tenet of the American dream, was available to pretty much anyone who breathed.

When anyone could qualify for a loan, predictably many did. Home prices appreciated monthly, and the pressure to get in the game was great—“It’s the best investment you can make!” “God’s not making any more of it!” “You’re throwing away money by renting!” While there’s an element of truth to those arguments, there’s another truism. When capital can move freely and stupidly, it will. And when it’s an emotional investment (as most housing is), look out. Americans bought homes in record numbers, flipped them, bought second homes, re-financed money out. It was a wonderful cash machine. Now, though, that game’s over.

”Next hand, blinds and antes are up!”

If you’re a marginal homeowner with a creative loan, and you were looking to refinance or flip when the “creative” part ran out, you’re now officially out of luck. Countrywide, the nation’s largest mortgage broker, is reeling under rumors of liquidity problems and possible bankruptcy. They’ve announced that henceforth they’ll only issue “conforming” loans, i.e. the good, old-fashioned boring ones. The problem is, that some 30-40% of mortgages in speculative markets (Las Vegas, Florida, California, etc.) were “creative.” There are over $800 BILLION of reset mortgages coming due next year. Imagine if you have an adjustable rate mortgage, interest only, at 2-3%, not an uncommon situation. Now when your mortgage resets, your rate will approach 7% increasing your monthly payment dramatically. That’s not a problem, though because you can flip your house if you get tight for cash. Well, at least you USED to be able to.

I’m convinced that over the next few years, the real estate market (including markets like California, Manhattan, etc.) is going to shake out hard. It won’t happen overnight since home sales are illiquid generally and even more so now with limited credit availability. However, people who over-reached and over-levered will eventually lose money and, in some cases, their homes. Of course, many will howl that they were, in fact, victims of greedy mortgage sellers, but the reality is they got ahead of themselves in a levered asset. It’s a hard lesson to learn.

This housing market, like the internet bubble and other brilliant ideas, will run through its five phases, namely

Enthusiasm.
Disillusionment.
Panic.
Punishment of the innocent.
Praise & honor for non-participants.

We’re about halfway through stage 2, and nowhere near the bottom.

"Floor!"

In recent weeks, the Fed and other central banks have been providing massive amounts (billions) of liquidity into the monetary system to ease the crisis. Late last week, the Asian markets got pummeled and the only thing preventing the same thing in the U.S. was the Fed’s surprise decision to drop the discount rate (rate at which it loans money to banks) by ½%. The Fed had declined to reduce the more influential Fed funds rate (the rate banks charge each other) because it’s fearful of inflation pressure. But then when the Asian markets were down 5%, they stepped in with a little boost. That cut and the market’s reaction was the equivalent of telling you “She’s a big girl, but she’s got a great personality.” Do yourself a favor and ask for a recent photo.

Short-stacked?

Remember, the American consumer’s already under a tremendous amount of pressure. Government figures suggest that core inflation is under control, but “core” inflation excludes several important items, housing, energy costs and food costs, that have been increasing dramatically. I don’t know about you, but rent, gas and food comprise a big chunk of my budget. It’s an even bigger chunk of the average American family making $60,000 or so a year with kids and a couple of SUVs in the driveway.

In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics would have you believe that employment is going along at a good clip. Indeed, lots of small businesses have been hiring. But huge layoffs are announced daily in larger corporations (expect more in financial services) and the government figures include estimates for construction and housing employment that are based on recent years data. I’m pretty sure there hasn’t been a new construction or housing job created in MONTHS regardless of what the BLS forecasting model says.

In short, the American consumer is already under a tremendous amount of pressure even before this credit crunch. Just ask Wal-Mart, the nation’s largest retailer, which accounts for some 9% of all retail purchases—it’s a good proxy for the consumer, at large. They recently missed their revenue and profit forecasts and cut their expectation for the year.

Does this mean the market’s going to crash? I don’t think so. Markets are now global and European and Asian lenders are not as exposed to problem housing loans as US lenders. In addition, countries who’ve been the beneficiaries of our consumptive ways over the last couple of years (China, Japan, oil producers, etc.) have big surpluses that they can move into markets when financial assets get cheaper. Here at home, there are plenty of institutions out there with plenty of cash to invest (Berkshire Hathaway, for example) and a number of corporations are sitting on wads of cash with which they could repurchase their stock. In short, it could get ugly, but, I believe, the markets and US economy will sort itself out.

But Edmond, I play POKER not the MARKET

Yeah, but what’s this mean for poker players? Americans love to gamble; they spend more in casinos that on movie tickets, recorded music, theme parks, spectator sports and video games…COMBINED. That said, I think it’s naïve to think that any significant impact to the American consumer won’t show up in numbers of tournament entries from casual players. In almost every tournament I’ve played over the last year, there’s at least a couple of “developers” at the table. Many pro poker players I know tend to keep themselves either in cash or bust, so exposure to a portfolio of real estate or levered assets isn’t a risk for most. A soft housing market or overall economy, though, will mean the steady flow of shot-taking recreational players might suffer a bit over the next few years.

Imagine, if you can, heading out to Vegas for the WSOP main event with some of your own dough and some from a friend and backer. The field is huge and soft and it looks like everyone’s got dough. You’ve had a little success in your home game and you’re ready to make your name. You start off great—a couple of nice hands hold and then a marginal hand nets you a huge pot. You’re checking in with your wife and backer daily—everything’s great, you’ll money, for sure. You can’t help but think about what you’re going to do with your score and over the next few days run up a nice little Rio bill. And then BAM! Out of nowhere, you get worked for your stack, overplaying AJo or some piece of trash within sight of the money. The blinds burn off the rest of your stack and just like that you’re gone, out of the tournament with nothing but an unused food voucher. You head back to Tennessee or wherever with 6 days of room service bills, a hangover and a suitcase full of clothes that smell like smoke to show for the effort. That’s how the American consumer/homeowner feels right now.

In time, the market will get over this crunch, like we all got through those bubble bust-outs, but for now there’ll be plenty of players swearing off the game and walking around muttering “Never again.”

Still digging,

Edmond

Building a Better Blog

For folks new to blogging, I thought I’d offer up some suggestions to make your blogging easier and more interesting for readers.

Note Taking

First, if you’re going to blog about tournaments, rooms or trip reports, get yourself a voice recorder. Hands or details that seem interesting at the time are often difficult to remember the following day when you’re sleep deprived or hung over. You can get a digital voice recorder (<$100 for a nice one, Olympus or Sony, at any Staples or Best Buy), use the rudimentary voice recorder in your cell-phone or buy an adapter for most iPods. The idea isn’t to become some full-on reporter for the Times but to use the recorder to make notes on details (hands, stack sizes, room features, etc.) that you might not remember when you’re ready to write.

In the absence of a voice recorder, take notes when you can. Writing down stuff that strikes you as interesting detail—number of tables, an unusual hand, characteristics of your opponents, whatever—will make it MUCH easier to write when you’re in front of the computer. You don’t have to take formal notes in a notebook; just jot a few notes on a cocktail napkin or structure sheet. How many tables were left, stack sizes, what guys were wearing, how you were feeling, etc. Anything that will help kick-start your writing when you’re off the felt.

Pictures and Links

Whenever possible, add pictures or links to your blog. Pictures add detail that’s not always easy to convey with words and links to other articles, sites, room listings, etc. give your reader additional info without cluttering your post. At TwoRags, we’ve got very easy image and linking tools for bloggers. If you haven’t already tried them, you should. They’ll really make your blog come to life.

A note on pictures. As with many forums and blogs, you’ll need to host your image somewhere and reference the url in your image link. If you post me at edmond@tworags.com, I’ll put your image(s) on our server, size it appropriately and post you a url link that you can easily use in your blog.

Organization

Finally, organize your blog post into bite size chunks. Whenever I’m running long, I try to break the blog into sections with a heading and some sort of structure so the reader doesn’t feel overwhelmed. If you’re writing short, punchy pieces, it’s not as critical to break your work into sections, but if you’re writing more than 5-6 paragraphs, do the reader a favor and break your work up into discreet units. It’ll be easier for you to edit and him to read.

You can see all of these concepts in use in a blog post I made a few days ago here WSOP Event #15: A rookie goes deep...

Still digging,

Edmond
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