Archive Apr 2007: Getting Even

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In Search of Dead Money

Last night, a friend and I played in an annual, invitation-only tournament sponsored by a national financial services firm. There were 144 entrants (free entry) competing for a prize pool that included a video iPod (3rd prize), a $500 gift certificate at a local steakhouse (2nd prize) and an entry into the WSOP main event and hotel accommodations (a $12,000+ value) for the first place winner.

I busted out about 60th or so when my AQs refused to stand up to my opponent’s K3o, but my friend actually won the event, taking home twelve grand of value for a few hours of work. The quality of play ranged from laughable to abysmal with few players understanding things like hand value, position and blind stealing. Typical for events like this, the blinds increase rapidly—organizers usually want to complete the event in an evening—so you need a certain amount of luck to find your way to the final table. That said, an intermediate player with a decent understanding of poker and tournament fundamentals would have had a huge advantage over the field.

As I was sweating and coaching my friend, it struck me that it may seem a little down market for an aspiring player to compete in these events, but there can be a lot of value in doing so. I'm a big fan of improving my game by playing better players, but I'm an even bigger fan of money. Admittedly, the event above was an invitation-only event (it's good to be on the list!), but there are other pockets of unskilled money out there in charity/invitational events and home games. The prize pools often include non-cash prizes (TVs, gift certificates and the like) but can include, like this one, entries into major tournaments. Novice and intermediate players should definitely keep an eye out for them.

These events are also low risk opportunities to work on basic people reading skills. Very few players in a charity event will sit with the hat and sunglasses ensemble that you see at even low buy-in casino events; of the 144 players in the event we played, none wore sunglasses or a hat of any kind. Novice and intermediate players can use the opportunity to watch the other players for visual clues—their demeanor, how they handle their bets, how they look when put in awkward spot, etc.—and work on matching hand strength to these clues. In a live casino event, other players will be making a conscious effort to conceal their emotions and read yours. In an invitational or charity event, players tend to be less serious and less self-aware so it’s a great opportunity to train yourself to look for tells and try to predict hand strength.

Similarly, I think home games are another source of dead money and opportunity to work on your game. I deal and play regularly in a home game hosted by a friend of mine, and I often bring a friend who is an improving player. We usually play 1 or 2 single table tournaments over the course of an evening. While my friend has a definite edge in live and online tournaments, he has a huge edge in this home game. The other players have poker knowledge (a sharp contrast to charity events) but still make routine mistakes about hand values, position and bubble play. Add alcohol into the mix and you've got a real value opportunity for a thinking player. Doing the math…

Home games = drinking
Drinking = impaired judgment
Unskilled players + impaired judgment = more mistakes
More mistakes = more money

Further, home games are another good opportunity to work on people and hand reading skills. In our home game, I regularly see strong means weak, weak means strong reads, speeches ("Well, I don't like my hand but I guess I should call…") and other basic tells. While I'm dealing, I'm practicing my reading skills and putting guys on ranges of hands based on those reads. It’s surprising how good you can get at it, if you make an effort.

And don’t forget, the vigorish in a home game is a lot less than in a casino event. In our game, we each chip in for food and drinks—there’s no fee to play or expected dealer tip (although there should be…ugh), like there is in a casino. The payout for the players is a lot more efficient than in a live event.

So off-casino event and home games are good spots for an intermediate player to find value. But what about online events? I think online play is usually better than live play at comparable levels, but there is still plenty of, if not obvious, free money. For example, one overlooked source of dead money online is in tournaments with an overlay.

Several online sites offer tournaments with guaranteed prize pools that undersell—not enough people enter to cover the guaranteed prize pool, so the sponsoring site has to make up the difference. The balance is called the “overlay” and is extra prize money spread across the field. For example, a site offering a $50,000 guaranteed prize pool in a $100 buy-in tournament would have to draw at least 500 entrants to cover the prize pool. If they drew only 400, the overlay would be calculated as follows:

400 entrants…400 x $100 = $40,000 of buy-in money

$50,000 guaranteed prize pool - $40,000 entry fees = $10,000 balance added by the site

Therefore, each player would then receive an overlay of $25 ($10,000/400) on his $100 entry, making his $100 worth $125 in this event.

That extra money gets compounded by your skill advantage. If you're 2x as good as the average player in the field, you've got an expectation of $200 for your $100 buy-in. In other words, if you play this tournament multiple times, you can expect to win an average of $200 each time you play. In a tournament with an overlay, your expectation would be 2x the buy-in PLUS the overlay or, in the case above, $250. If you figure the average tournament runs 5-6 hours, that’s an extra $10/hour of value for a good player.

I’ve been tracking the major weekly online tournaments over the last year to see which ones provide overlays. The major PokerStars, Full Tilt and Party tournaments rarely offer them, but the weekly events of many second tier sites, Absolute, Bodog, Pacific and Ultimate Bet, almost always do. Moreover, on holiday weekends, these overlays can be pretty sick—one recent Bodog tournament offered a 90% overlay! You can see the overlays offered in leading tournaments over the last year or so here…

Overlays in online MTTs

To sum up, I’d say there’s a lot of free money out there, if you’re willing to slum it a little in off-casino events, home games and second tier online sites. I’m all for competing against the best, but if your goal is maximizing your dollars per hour of play, keep an eye open for local charity events, find or start a home game and look at some of the guaranteed tournaments offered by second tier sites on that chart. They can be low-risk ways to build your bankroll (or win WSOP entries!), skills and confidence so you’ll be that much stronger in live casino events.

Still digging,

Edmond

How not to play a baby ace - The Sequel

I recently saw a hand from the Aussie Millions Cash game and I thought it was pretty instructive for intermediate players on how NOT to play a hand. With 60-70 hours of poker programming on each week, many players continue to enjoy the game by watching players on TV. Unfortunately, a number of the hands shown on TV reinforce behavior patterns that are real money losers for most players. For example, playing small suited aces out of position is a EV- play for most cash and tournament players, yet you routinely see this in televised play.

In another blog, I recounted a hand where Phil Hellmuth gets eviscerated by Daniel Negreanu playing an A4o, out-of-position. Similarly, in this Aussie Millions video, Phil Ivey, arguably one of the best cash game players ever, dumps over $60,000, playing A3 under the gun. In the context of his playing experience with the other players at the table, the play may have made sense. Furthermore, there may be places where such a play is justified—you're facing blind pressure late in a tournament or you’re seated at a passive table and assured of seeing a cheap multi-way flop—but in your typical online or live cash game, small aces out of position are money pits. Fold them.

Here's how the hand played out.

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The blinds are 300/600 with a 100 ante. There are eight players seated; the starting pot, with antes, is 1700.

Ivey starts the action by limping with A3 for 600. Directly to his left, Erik Lindgren limps as well with AQ. Novice and intermediate players have to recognize that these plays are not optimal in the typical online/live cash game. If there are 4-5 players to a flop, I can see Ivey limping, but Lindgren's limp behind is horrible here, in my opinion. There's $2300 in the pot with Ivey's limp, and AQo is a decent starting hand but one in which you need to narrow the field and figure out where you stand. I think the better play is a raise to around $5000 and would argue that a player in an online/live game is making a big mistake by mirroring Lindgren's action.

In any event, he limps and Chris Ferguson, an amateur in seat 1 and John Juanda fold. At that point, Patrik Antonius, holding 88, raises $3800 to $6700. I like this play. There's been no show of strength (two limpers), his eights are likely good and he wants to narrow the field. If he's called, he can re-evaluate after the flop. He puts in a nice raise to see who's serious about their hand. The blinds, Billy "the Croc" Argyros and Jeff Lisandro, both fold.

With the action back to Ivey, he re-raises $17,000 or so, a very aggressive play and again one that novice to intermediates should avoid. I can see his thinking here—he and Antonius play each other frequently; he may see Antonius making a play from position and decides to represent a monster hand. Unfortunately, Patrik calls.

Online and live, the limp/re-raise from UTG with a monster hand (AA, KK, AK) is a very transparent play and one you should use sparingly. It typically results in the pot ending right there with no further value for your hand, and when action proceeds to the flop, pretty much everyone in the hand knows what you're holding. Acting out of position when others know your hole cards is a problem.

On the 43Q flop, Ivey continues to represent a big hand and fires a 2/3 pot bet of $16,000 at the 24,300 pot. Antonius calls.

The turn is the 5, and Ivey fires another $40,000 at the pot. At this point, Antonius pushes, and Ivey thinks (more accurately, he pretends to think) for a bit and folds.

Note that Argyros comments at several points in the hand and when Ivey's contemplating Antonius’ shove, he makes a joke which falls flat. Not only does he look like a buffoon wearing his ridiculous crocodile hat, his breach of protocol is shameful for a better player. It's surprising even at these levels how many players don't show common courtesy to the other players. If you're not in the hand, respect the others who are and shut up.

To his credit, Ivey says nothing, but he’s clearly aggravated and gets up from the table to steam a little.

Let’s recap. Ivey limps with A3s under the gun, is raised, re-raises and continues his charade on the flop and turn until he’s rebuffed. Of course, if Ivey flops a monster here (two pair or trips), he looks like a hero, but those are both long shots (70+ to 1 and 50 to 1, respectively). It’s far more likely that he’s going to end up dumping off chips with a small ace out-of-position and he’s one of the best in the world. Do your bankroll a favor, fold the small aces out-of-position!

Still digging,

Edmond

I have no credibility on Bodog.

Bodog $3/$6 NL. Apologies in advance for the HH format.

9-handed table; 6 seated. I sit, wait for the BB and post.

UTG $222.00 (posts $6 out of turn, one seat from BB)
UTG+1 $288.00
MP $1381.00
DB $203.00
SB $177.50
Edmond (BB) $600.00

UTG, heretofore waiting patiently for his big blind, realizes I'm in the hand and, therefore, opts to post and check. UTG+1, anxious to isolate me, raises $19. MP misclicks and folds. DB sees UTG+1's show of greed and calls. Ha! He's got position on all of us! Any two are good here! SB discounts my positional advantage immediately and calls. He'll outplay me from any seat.

I now make an obvious fish move and raise to $60. UTG misclicks and folds. UTG+1 laughs at the literary irony of my screenname reference to a "humble and poor fisherman" and instacalls the $41 more. DB instacalls. Any two cards are good here. SB, overcome by greed, tries to isolate me with my two rags and moves all-in for $158.50.

Desperate to salvage my play, I shove my last $540. I'm obviously looking for everyone to just go away and let me take my chances vs the SB. UTG+1, giddy with his good fortune I've waddled into his trap and he'll double up here, calls all-in for $228. DB, though, holds an A (a monster here!) and calls $143 all-in with confidence.

Four players all-in to the flop. Pot = $959.

Flop 3 T 8
Turn K
River 2

UTG shows K Q
DB shows A 5
SB shows J 7

I show my A A and take down the $959 pot but sit out in shame, knowing 1) I've all the credibility of a micro-limit player, 2) I've peaked on my first hand of the night and broken a fine table and 3) have to re-create a Bodog hand history without a proper converter.

Edmond

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