Not much going on right now
by Adanthar on 09/04/07
Mostly, I'm waiting on the Cardrunners microphone to get here so I can play around with making some videos. I tried to do some stuff with the regular mike I use for Skype, but the sound quality is bad enough that it's not worth posting. Tournament-wise, I haven't made a deep run in a week or so, so no really interesting hands there, either. In order to make this entry not worthless, here's a hand Bond posted on 2+2:
Seat 2: ACFIORE (8,355)
Seat 7: muckthenuts (6,360)
muckthenuts posts the small blind of 25
snappingUoff posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to muckthenuts [Qs Td]
(2 folds)
ACFIORE calls 50
(2 folds)
ajgoal calls 50
muckthenuts calls 25
snappingUoff checks
*** FLOP *** [Js Qh Ts]
muckthenuts bets 150
snappingUoff folds
ACFIORE has 15 seconds left to act
ACFIORE raises to 650
ajgoal folds
muckthenuts
Before you say what we should do, let's figure out a)his range and b)what will happen if we call or 3 bet.
A)Villain open limped in EMP and then raised a very ugly flop. We can assume that he doesn't have AK here, and also discount AQ. AA-TT are all possibilities, though AA and JJ-TT are more likely. His overall range, then, is something like {AA, JJ-TT, Asxs, Ksxs, KQ, K9, QJ-QT, JT, 98}, but that does not count the raise size, which suggests a big made hand that wants to protect against draws and somewhat discounts combo draws. [Note that this isn't really a leak on villain's part on a flop like this even though he's giving away info; the flop is so bad and you'll have to slow down on so many turn cards that you may as well just try to win the pot here.]
B)1. If we call, the turn is a brick, and our 'big made hand' read is correct, the villain is probably betting all his hands again when checked to. We also clearly have to check/fold all non-bricks that don't boat us, even if we think villain might bluff a turn 9 (far too deep to bluff catch two streets) - and this probably includes spades, since the Qs just isn't that big of a deal and some of those outs are tainted.
2. If we 3 bet, villain might fold exactly aces. We'll wind up all in with everything else. If you Pokerstove his range and make the adjustments I mentioned, you'll find we're a little under 40/60 against it.
Therefore, what we have here is a pretty easy flop fold, and not folding here is a fairly decent leak (note that this doesn't apply in any buyin tournament where this can easily be Q7o.) Tournament players often don't get this because being this deep is rare and most of the time the action goes bet/shove/call, but with 115 BB, you have to think about what will happen on future streets, and on this board the answer is 'nothing good'.
BTW, (again, taking into account that the board is this bad), it is perfectly acceptable to check/call the flop and then bet a blank turn - a line that is pretty underused but ought to be considered here since we're pretty sure one of the limpers will bet. While it might not get the most chips in, it also greatly reduces the chances of us being semibluffed off the pot.
Comments
Anonymous says
Thanks for the insight. I would have reraised the flop and folded to a shove... big leak.09/05/07
Anonymous says
Interesting. I guess I have a big leak too. Not that I wouldn't fold. Just not as automatic for me as it seems to be for you. Great analysis. What did Bond do?09/05/07
Adanthar says
Bond called and then check/(I think) folded the brick turn. The main problem with this is the predictability of the turn bet, so this line is just giving away some large fraction of 500 chips.09/05/07
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