Unorthodox lines, Part III
by Adanthar on 04/09/07
The bad news: I haven't seen a hand on the topic worth posting in the last couple of days. The good news: 2+2 is back up and does have something interesting. So, for part 3 of this series (although it's more like part 2.5), let's talk about this thread. A quick summary: We're playing 10/25 NL vs. a fish who made a big raise PF. We have JT on a flop of JT3 and got bet/min-3 bet. From a superfish, this does certainly mean exactly an overpair (or possibly a set, but we don't really care - if we get stacked, that's poker.) His third raise makes it 1K and we both started the hand with 5K. Do we shove [4 betting less than AI is bad here, IMO, since it all but bludgeons "I have the nuts" into the guy's head] or call? Think about the rationales for each for a few seconds before choosing and then scroll down.
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Most of HSNL so far is picking 'call'; the ones that picked shove aren't giving a reason. That's unfortunately par for the course for HSNL these days, but to be fair, it's not really an HSNL question.
The reason for that is that there is a definite right answer to it. Of course, I don't mean that literally in this case, but all you have to do to find it is ask "How often does this guy fold an overpair to a flop 4 bet all in?" Once you know that, it gets you half the equation - namely, the $EV of shoving now. The math would take a little while to do, but at the poker table, just tell yourself "if he never folds, I own 3/4 of that guy's stack in Sklansky bucks". (I realize it's not actually 3/4. Close enough :) ) Incidentally, he will rarely fold if you take a while to make your decision - fish that raise 6x PF, then min3bet overpairs don't tend to fold to 4 bet shoves from LAGs on JT3 flops, especially live.
We determine the other half by figuring out the EV of waiting for the turn. This is the tricky part, and the part that only one person has gotten on HSNL at 10:15 PM EST. Most people realize that just calling the 3 bet minimizes variance - now you can get away when the turn is a 3 - and many will also think about the fish freezing up when an ace hits the turn and he only has kings. (By the way, since he will likely check an ace on the turn no matter what he has, you will either have to let him see 11 free river outs or lose all future value/bet half your stack while drawing dead. The same goes for a king when he has queens.) But usually, people *don't* realize how unlucky you are when a jack hits the turn - that card sometimes kills your action more than an ace - and almost nobody counts a ten as a bad card when it will often freeze the fish up, too. In reality, any Broadway is a very bad turn card for you, and *that's* why you should be pushing flops here.
But let's say you called (understandable - this decision is relatively close, and calling would probably be correct on an 873 board when you can make a full house and not lose Sklansky bucks over it. In addition, people do make weird plays live, and occasionally you just know the guy will fold to a shove but happily assume you have QJ on a good turn.) The turn is a 9 and he leads 500 bucks into the pot of 2K and change with 3100 behind. Now what?
Again, this question has a clear answer, feeding back into the earlier explanation. He still has tons of outs with everything except AA, and plenty with aces. Any card from an 8 up is likely to be a bad one for either your hand or how much money you will get in on the river, any 3 is as well, and unlike the flop, your stacks are absolutely perfect for a shove on the turn. There's really zero good reasons to minimize variance here - any variance isn't even likely to be on the fish's side.
So here's another thought about slowplaying - make sure you don't slowplay yourself into the nuts and make $0.
Comments
EdmondDantes says
I saw that thread and my first reaction was "Shove, of course." but the number of advocates of just calling made me reconsider. The reconsideration was brief. I think shoving the flop is the optimal play for the following reasons:1) The poster predetermined that his opponent will call with TP. Villain has a good hand here (an overpair, most likely) and clearly wants action. Figure he's 50% at least to call a shove and the poster is 2.7 to 1 to beat his overpair. That's a 35+% win percentage on the balance of his stack.
2) The poster has two pair, a great hand but a vulnerable hand. As you point out, pairing the bottom card ruins his hand. With an overpair here, villain only has five outs, but still, that's 25% to improve to the river. One out of four happens more often than you think--well, 25% of the time, at least--and the problem is, when it happens, it's on more expensive streets.
3) The turn is not hero's friend here. Guys always fret about scare cards for themselves and fail to realize the effect of the turn on their opponent's action. In my opinion, too many turn cards slow the hero OR the villain down. If villain has KK or QQ, any A, J or T backs him up. If he has AA, a K, Q, J or T bums him out. As well, the turn gives him a second opportunity to THINK. Not good. His flop action says "Let's go!". The poster should embrace his enthusiasm.
4) I far prefer getting money in ahead. Hero is well ahead on the flop and villain wants action. Hero should give it to him before he improves.
5) The probability of villain calling the flop shove is likely HIGHER than most people think. For the typical player, AA and KK are difficult hands to abandon versus anyone, much less an opponent who's been active and working you in position. Part of the whole LAG strategy is to get opponents to overplay their hands. The hero's image has set this hand up. He needs to capitalize on it.
6) A push on the flop by a monster hand is counter-intuitive for many opponents. "Why would you play a monster so hard? It must be a draw! I call! Oh."
7) If hero calls here, his EV on the turn is directly related to the probability of villain calling a turn shove and/or hero's willingness to take the act. A lot of cards worsen villain's willingness to call and hero's willingness to act aggressively. Balance this against hero's probability to win the hand from the turn. Here's where it gets interesting. Only four cards (the remaining J's and Ts) improve the hero's odds to win substantially. Consider that he's about 2.7 to 1 with his JTo two pair v his overpair. A blank pushes that to about 4 to 1, a broadway card keeps his win percentage pretty much unchanged. Villain's miracle card (whatever makes his set) leaves poster drawing dead. Even if hero boats, villain has 2 outs. See #3 above, the turn is not our friend here.
8) Finally, with due respect to the elegance and creativity of Sun Tzu, there's something to be said for outright thuggish aggression in battle. See Khan, Grant, Sherman, Patton et al.
So, on balance, I would argue that the EV of hero's flop shove is likely higher than the EV of a turn shove. On the flop, he's well ahead and the likelihood of villain calling is high. On the turn, the likelihood of villain calling only goes up if he improves and likely declines with any broadway card or the opportunity to RETHINK. Importantly, hero's probability of winning only improves slightly with most cards. It follows that he should push the variance minimization argument aside and shove the flop.
Edmond
P.S. To those who advocate lower variance, I would argue that proper ring game play says you should push your edges, however slight, and so doing will tend to increase your variance. If variance is an issue for you, manage your bankroll and limits accordingly.
04/09/07
tateissy says
I also read the thread. My first thought was that the poster was too confident in his read. He is just so sure that the villian has an overpair and I don't think that kind of 100% sure read is a good thing.Given that there are so many cards that either put you behind, scare you into thinking you are behind or kill your action I think shoving the flop is the best play. The 3 gives you a losinig hand, and the Q-A likely does the same. Even if the A doesn't hit him, it takes away your action given that he could put you on a big A. A J and a T are also trouble since you get little more action with those card. I would definitely shove on the flop. Especially given that the hero is fairly confident that this villian against his current loose rep would call here a high percentage of the time.
04/10/07
lakong says
I like the push on the flop after his re-raise. I have two reasons for this:1) as others have pointed out, there are too many cards on the turn that could dry up your action
2) a push here looks suspicous; especially given your aggressive rep with the villian. It looks like a push is more likely to get called here then it would on the turn assuming a scare card falls.
04/10/07
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