EdmondDantes says

I wouldn't have too much angst about that call. As played, villain has a pretty wide range and shoves here with some hands you beat. I'd call and be surprised when he showed the nut straight (it's a pretty non-threatening board to be pushing with you still to act; he wants your overpair action if he's holding the straight). I ran it through the EValuator and assigned some probabilities to hands he could be holding. On balance, I think it's a EV+ call and, yes, you're owed some G$.

TwoRags.com EValuator Tool Scenario (change hand ranges)

Your Hand: As Ac
Board: 5d 6s 9h
Pot: $4800
Call: $1760
Pot Odds: 2.7 to 1

Hand Range Probability Win%
1: Th Td 10% 90%
2: 9d 8d 30% 64%
3: 8h 7h 20% 3%
4: 5c 5s 20% 10%
5: 5c 6c 20% 26%

SUMMARY RESULTS

Win Probability for this Scenario: 36%
Less: Break-even win% needed: (27%)
Positive Variance: 9%

Total Expectation: $2,360
Less: Amount of Call: ($1,760)
Positive Expectation: $600


Still digging,

Edmond

04/08/07

Anonymous says

Ed, not sure if I agree with your ranges. you are basically saying that only 60% of the time you are beat at that point, so therefore it's a close call. Well given that there is no flush draw on the board, the UTG player showed strength with the out of position raise and you (the PF raiser) are left to act, I would estimate that you are beat a higher percentage of the time; closer to 70-75%. Now if you were the only other player in the hand Post-flop or if there was a flush draw on the board, perhaps the 60% estimate is close.

04/09/07

EdmondDantes says

I can see that. If I change the probability of an overpair to 0%, reduce the top pair w/ draw to 20% and increase the probability of a set to pick of the slack, you end up with a -EV call...

TwoRags.com EValuator Tool Scenario (change hand ranges)

Your Hand: As Ac
Board: 5d 6s 9h
Pot: $4800
Call: $1760
Pot Odds: 2.7 to 1

Hand Range Probability Win%
1: Th Td 90%
2: 9d 8d 20% 64%
3: 8h 7h 30% 3%
4: 5c 5s 30% 10%
5: 5c 6c 20% 26%

SUMMARY RESULTS

Win Probability for this Scenario: 22%
Less: Break-even win% needed: (27%)
Negative Variance: (5%)

Total Expectation: $1,440
Less: Amount of Call: ($1,760)
Negative Expectation: ($320)

But I think discounting the value of your hand to one that's ahead only 20% of the time is too much. Tournament play is just so bad, especially at buy-ins of <$50. I routinely see hands (live and online) where I think "Ok, that's a set or two pair." and then the cards are turned over and my thoughts change to "Good Lord, you pushed with that? There? Wow."

Anyway, just my $.02,

Edmond

04/09/07

Anonymous says

Test

05/08/07

Anonymous says

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05/08/07

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Lately, it seems the tournaments where I get hit by the deck early, I've been losing late. I played a donkament the other day and had 2 full houses, a nut flush, trips and turned quads...all by the 3rd level. 'Course, I was out by the start of the 4th level.

7,500 gtd on BoDog
Average 2200
blinds 25/50

UTG raises 110 (big stack)6k
2nd Pos calls 110 (2400)
Hero mid pos (AA) raises to 540 (2300)
UTG labors and calls
2nd pos instacalls
Flop 569 rainbow
UTG bets half pot
2nd pos pushes
Hero calls. UTG folds. 2nd pos shows 78o.

I'm not completely clear on the concept, but I think I'm owed a lot of G-bucks.