I got a PM on 2+2 that posed an interesting question so I thought it might me good to post the question and my response on here.

Question:

You seem to be the most knowledgable poster here [sidebar: LOL], so I was hoping you could settle something for me.

You've helped me reconsider my approach to MTTs (from survivor to accumulator). However, for whatever reason, I'm not yet fully convinced that taking a +chipEV edge early is always correct (I know this is an on-going, classic debate...but it seems there is now a consensus that the accumulators are correct). Here's why:

I think a valid assumption at the early stages of an MTT is that we are going to be dealt many hands. We can calculate the probability of getting AA...which will be relativley high (we can add in KK and QQ, etc...so, even higher). When we take the early +chipEV....we are foregoing this high probability of being dealt AA.

Again, I know this has been hammered (and have read Woodguy's thread)...but how can we justify passing up on a future, larger +chipEV (that is not certain, but probable) for a smaller +chipEV early? Is it simply because we cannot assume that it is probable that we will be in a higher +chipEV spot?

I just need to get past this disconnect and was hoping you could help (as you did with explaining why $EV doesn't matter until real late). Thanks.....

My Response:

LOL @ me being most knowledgeable. But, I do know a thing or two and can help answer your question.

To win a tournament you must take every edge given to you, either by the cards, by aggressive play, by outthinking your opponents, etc. In large field tournaments, waiting for 80/20 edges where you actually get paid off may happen once or twice if you are lucky. Even if you are lucky and get AA 5 times, doubling up with it once is probably meeting expectation. (meaning someone else had something they were willing to stack off with and put all their chips in play). Most of the time you get AA you are going to raise, someone might call, you bet or check/raise and most of the time they fold. 1 out of 5 times your overpair will get cracked. Thus, waiting for overpairs and 80/20 spots, while certainly solid +Cev spots, will not by themselves be near enough to win a tournament. Moreover, if you consistently passing up spots with, say, 99 because you are "looking for better spots" and are unwilling to race against overcards, you may infact we giving up an 80/20 because villian could have 88 or less. This is why villian's ranges must be merged and weighted and our +Cev hand felted in these spots. For the same reason most advocate calling nearly all all-in's with AK. Most of the time we have already put in a raise with AK and along with the blinds/antes and any other dead money in the pot makes the all-in call +Cev even when we are the 45/55 dog. Tournaments are won by chip accumulation, and the only way to accumulate the number of chips needed to win is by outplaying opponents and winning coin flips. Every large field tournament winner sucked out more than his fair share to get to that point as well.

In sum, you won't maximize your tournament potential if you don't embrace the need to felt small edges. Those who refuse to engage in early/middle stages coin flips are usually the kind of players that bubble and min cash a lot. To get to the final table you must take every +Cev spot available and have the cards go your way. Only one of those factors is within your control.

Hope this helps.

In addition to a 33rd place finish in the Pokerstars Sunday Hundred Grand and some other deep cashes, grinding $12/180 turbos on stars has been going really well. These tourneys are known to be high variance and can be really frustrating when not running good. However, they are easily beatable long term and I have had good overall results. I'm up over $2k overall for April so I hope to continue this run going into WSOP-C in New Orleans.



Coincidentally, I am not really bankrolled for the WSOP-C $500+50 event I am playing May 9 so if anyone would like to make a one-time staking arrangement I would be interested. I finished 3rd in the event in November but unfortunately had bills to pay with my winnings.

I was staying with my parents in DFW so we decided to head up to the Choctaw casino in Durant. My parents play the slots but I would have at least a couple hours to try out the poker room.

The casino is very smoky inside, but the poker room is smoke-free. They have burgers that seem to be free that you can fix yourself laying on a table in the room, buffet-style. The poker room manager has a modern computer setup outside the poker room where you put your name on the interest list. I signed up for 1/2 NL and after about 15 minutes they started a new table for me and the others that had signed up. The poker room is pretty middle of the road but probably more upscale than a typical tribe casino. Not as nice as Vegas rooms or Harrah's in New Orleans, but solid. The tables have auto shufflers and the dealers seem competent, although a bit "country." There isn't much for a hundred miles on either side of Durant, so this should be expected. The action went along well and I had no dealer problems during my 3 hours of play. I ended up around $140: it would have been more but I had 2 cooler hands that cost me around $100 total.

Overall the room is better than expected for a tribal casino and I am very likely to return when visiting the DFW area. I will also try out the Winstar Casino when I am in DFW next as it has a much larger poker room.

After 6 hours of play I just finished 33rd in the Stars Sunday hundred grand. Only $334, but at least it's paid for all the Sunday 100k lotterys I've played before.

At the same time I was deep in the $10r. With around 50 left I get the dumbest beat of the day:

Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t6000/t12000 Blinds - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: t265376
BTN: t79878
SB: t193192
BB: t575812
UTG: t353132
UTG+1: t126336
MP1: t432169
Hero (MP2): t166355

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with 9 9
2 folds, MP1 raises to t28653[/color], [color=red]Hero raises to t165155 all in, 4 folds, MP1 calls t136502

Flop: (t357910) Q A 3(2 players - 1 is all in)[/color]

Turn: (t357910) 9(2 players - 1 is all in)[/color]

River: (t357910) J (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t357910
MP1 shows 8c Tc (a flush, Ace high)
Hero shows 9c 9s (three of a kind, Nines)
MP1 wins t357910

Most of you work a 9 to 5 job like me and play poker for recreation and extra income. Poker only made up about 10% of my income in 2007 and although I am off to a slow start I hope to best that in 2008. The problem is that poker is an extremely consuming hobby compared to other activities. People who enjoy, say, mountain biking or wine tasting, don't read strategy forums constantly, think about the equity of AKo with an M of 7 during their business meetings, or stay up late at night staring at a computer screen analyzing all the minutia of activity 6 or more tables can provide at any given moment. Most recreational activities also allow a fair degree of socializing during them, while online poker does not. Most nights my girlfriend lays on the daybed watching TV or browsing the net on the laptop while I play 4 to 6 tables. She complains I am like a "zombie" when playing, but how can one not be a zombie when he needs to take note of continuation bet sizing patterns or MP raising ranges? She introduced me to poker, so I remind her that it's all her fault anyway.

Having said that, here are brad2002tj's 6 tips for balancing out your life with poker:

1. Set aside "date nights" for your significant other. Take her out to dinner, a comedy show, get drunk together, etc. Talk about anything but poker. Tell her you like her dress. You know, all that crap you did when you met her.

2. Exercise. I run 15-25 miles a week. It's one of the few things that keep me from truly being a degenerate. Find something athletic you like to do, even if it is just lifting weights. You will live longer, look better, and the afore-mentioned significant other will be much more likely to give you sexytime you after you donk out of all your games. Plus exercising with your SO keeps her in shape, so what's not to like about that?

3. Do non-poker related projects, especially if they can be done with your SO. Landscaping, home improvement, writing, etc. are all good ideas. My SO loves working on the yard, so often our weekends involve trips to Home Depot and working together outside.

4. Set professional goals. Don't be satisified with where you are. The sad truth is that for most of us our mental resources would be better spent applied to our profession than poker. Volunteer for extra projects. Don't even think about "going pro" until you have a year or two of living expenses in your bankroll. Considering that I usually spend my winnings, that will be never.

5. Spend time studing the game away from the tables. Many of us post/read online strategy forums, and I am always reading poker books and magazines (review of Harrington on Cash 1-2 is forthcoming). Dedicate at least a small portion of your day to doing this so that you don't get lost in the minutia of the game and to help see the big picture.

6. Play for fun again. Every now and then I'll open up a $1 STT, especially after some alcoholic beverages, and play like an absolute maniac. It's amazing what moves you can make when you really don't care about the money. You can be the fearless poker player you always wanted to be, and it's actually fun and stress-free. The free games at your local bars can be a great stress reliever as well.

Happy living!