Since winning the TLB Top 1000 Freeroll on 11th January, I have suffered the worst six months of negative variance in my poker career. Here are the stats:

Online Cash-Prize MTTs:

Played 439
ABI: $158
Lost: $24.1k
Lost: 152 ABIs
ROI: -30%

Live Tourneys, including online satellite wins/losses:

Lost: $27.6k

Total 2009 to date: Lost $52.3k

This compares to winning $250k in the 2005-2008 period and my lifetime stats:

Online Cash-Prize MTTs:

Played 3188
ABI: $174
Won: $229k
ROI: +41%

Live Tourneys, including online satellite wins/losses:

Lost: $20k

All of these live losses in the last 21 tourneys played out here in Vegas. Before that I was breakeven in live tourneys, which in itself was already the negative side of variance because I have a positive expectation in them over the long run.

My 2009 losses have wiped-out my Working BR and forced me to go back to working my space industry career after the summer. I'm still going to stick with poker as a part-time hobby that hopefully makes me some money, but unless variance hits a major upswing in the Main Event starting this Friday, I'm bowing out of being a poker pro for the time being.

It's been fun overall, but these last 6 months were misery. My wife says its a sign from God. I'm not religious, but I can see her point.

It’s the opening event of the Bellagio Cup: $540 for 10,000 chips and 40 minute levels with hand-shuffling (i.e. a bit of a turbo compared to most Vegas structures these days). Whereas the Bellagio Daily tourneys are held in the famously crowded, cramped, noisy and star-studded poker room, the Cup moves over to the more relaxed ambiance of the Fontana Lounge.

I’ve never ran good in this room and often busted my tourneys here in the first few levels. Based on my experience with pocket rockets so far this trip, I was kinda ambivalent to seeing them for my first hand. I popped a mid-position limper up to 225 at 25/50, the BB called and so did the limper. Flop 764dd and I meet no resistance to my 625 bet and take it down. Phew!

It’s a fun table. There’s an attractive, friendly girl in a vest in Seat 3 who’s bantering a lot with a Costa Rica-based Pokerstars “Poker Expert” employee in Seat 6. We all get involved in a lot of friendly conversation and jokes. Double-bracelet winner Greg Mueller drops by and chats with the girl and her male-friend on the rail for a while.

Later in Level 1 there are a few limpers and I limp in with 22 in LP. It checks to me on an AT2cc flop and I bet 175 into the 250 pot. The attractive girl calls and I think either she is chasing the flush or has a fairly weak Ace (she limped in EP). Turn is an offsuit 9 and I bet 375. She calls again and the river is a fairly safe offsuit 8. I bet 900 and she pays me off with A6.

I lose some chips when I call JJ in position, call a flop c-bet, then check-down on a 78QQ5 board versus KK, then lose a little more calling a couple of speculative hands in position before my next big hand arrives:

My Stack ~8.5k, Seat 1 ~10k, Blinds 100/200, I hold KK in the CO.

I open for 600 and both SB and BB call to see a QQ5 rainbow flop. It checks to me and I check behind for pot control. Only an Ace can change things much on the turn, so giving a free card doesn’t seem bad here and I want to avoid C/R by someone either having or representing a Queen. Turn J bringing two clubs on-board and SB bets out 1k into the 1800 pot. Of course he takes this line with Qx here, but he can also just be bluffing, betting a Jack or a flush draw. BB folds and I call. There’s an argument for raising here “to find out where I’m at”, but that’s not generally a play that I like to make and I prefer to get to river with as small a pot as possible and make my decisions a little easier. River blanks and he quickly bets 2k into 3.8k pot. I feel strongly that he’s taking me to value town with Qx, but I just can’t find a fold here versus an unknown random player who might take this same line with Jx or a bluff. So I pay-off AQ and I’m down to ~5k.

Last hand before the break, I bet AKo UTG, get called by the button and check-fold an 865dd flop – I just didn’t feel that I had enough chips left to afford an obvious and risky c-bet into such a draw-heavy board.

Back after the break, I fold my BB then find myself in my usual situation at the Bellagio:

My Stack ~4k, Seat 5 ~8k, Blinds 100/200/25, I hold AA in SB.

Seat 5 opens to 600 from the CO. He is an aggressive player who has been caught bluffing and seems quite spewy, so I’m sure he can be opening light and that he’ll c-bet any flop. As such, I play for max value by smooth-calling, BB folds:

Pot 1650
Flop KdThXo

He bets 800, I raise to 1800, he jams, I insta-call and he shows me Kh9h:

Turn Qh

River Jh

Oh, he only made a straight flush! Nice hand! Good Game!

On the bright side, I’ve now got some time to relax before I play the Main Event on Friday. I’m taking the day off tomorrow and my friend just got me an invite to a party at Hugh Hefner’s Playboy suite in The Palms tonight. Should be more fun than the poker!

Back for another try at Caesar’s Palace $340 for 15,000 chips, I arrived a few minutes late, but soon got my stack moving in the right direction:

My Stack (Seat 1) ~15k, Seat 6 ~15k, Blinds 25/50, I hold Q9s in MP.

I open for 150 and get two callers including Seat 6 OTB. I check-call a 350 OTB bet on the JT6dd flop. His bet seemed kinda strong, I put him at least Jx and when the turn paired the 6, I figured I would set the price for seeing the river lower by putting out a blocking bet of 600. He duly called and I rivered an offsuit 8. I threw out two 1k chips at the ~2.7k pot, which seems about the right amount to represent a bluff and he quickly paid me off with JT.

Shortly after:

My Stack ~18k, Seat 3 ~17k, Blinds 25/50, I hold 77 in SB.

Seat 3 limped UTG and MP makes it 250. I call and Seat 3 calls. Flop A72hh and I check because I’m pretty sure the raiser will bet at the Ace. Surprisingly Seat 3 bets only 300 into the 850 pot and Seat 7 just calls. With 1450 now in the pot, I decide to reraise big to 2.1k to make sure any flush draws are paying a heavy price to chase here. Seat 3 moves-in, Seat 7 folds and I think for a few seconds. You might say that this should be a snap-call, but I’m seriously thinking about whether he can have AA here. I decide that’s highly unlikely, make the call and I’m most pleased when he shows me 22 rather than a flush draw and I fade the one-outer to shoot up to ~36k.

Seat 6 soon busts after getting spectacularly unlucky on a couple more hands. Not much happens in Level 2 and we come back from the break to find a late registrant moving into the vacated Seat 6 after a couple of hands have played. His stack was already there at the re-start and the dealer took his SB+BB standard penalty into the first pot for late-registration. He is a rich businessman who frequently plays tourneys in Vegas. I’ve played with him at Bellagio before and he plays pretty bad. He also has a bit of a temper and is always arguing about something. He argued with the dealer about having to pay his 225 chip penalty before he’d arrived to play a hand, called the floor, but they told him it was correct and he grumbled about it. He then played the first hand he was dealt:

My Stack ~36k, Seat 6 ~15k, Blinds 75/150, I hold A4cc OTB.

He opened UTG for 600, 2 callers and I call in position: flop 945r and he bets 1175 into ~2.6k. The pre-flop callers fold and I peel another card because I feel the price is pretty good and he will pay me if I catch an Ace or a Four. The turn blanks, he checks, so I take my free card and I river trip 4s. He checks again and I make it 2.5k into the 4k pot. He moves-in. I think about it for a while, wondering if he can have a boat (there is no flush or straight possible). I decide that it is unlikely that he has it and, in any case, I can afford to risk ~11k because I’ve a big stack at this early stage. I call and he shows me 66. I show him my trips and he throws a wobbly, cursing me as a donkey for calling the bet on the flop and storming off. I say nothing to him and stack my chips. I’ve now got a 50k+ mountain of chips.

My Stack >50k, Seat 10 ~15k, Blinds 100/200/25, I hold 89o in BB

Two limpers, SB completes and I check my option: flop 7TJcc. Call me retarded, but I’ve always had trouble reading straights and I didn’t initially realise that I’d flopped one here. SB checked to me and I looked at the board for a few seconds confused and then it dawned on me that I had it. That might have helped it make it look like I had a draw (because that was my initial reaction), and I bet 600 into the 1050 pot. Limpers fold and SB called: turn 6o. I bet 1200 into 2250 and SB called again: river 6o. I didn’t like the fact that the board paired here and when the SB bet 2k into the 4650 pot, I felt uneasy. I thought for a second about what I would do if I raised and he 3-bet me. I’d feel sick. I then laughed at myself for being such a girl and said it out loud to the table “OK, I’m gonna just call like a girl!” It was a bad decision and I knew that as soon as I did it, but sometimes it’s hard to keep making good decisions all day long. It wasn’t a terrible mistake, just a conservative action that has been something that I’ve been aware of in my game and that I need to work on. It possibly cost me 2-4k in chips because he showed-up with AJo, which is certainly strong enough to call a raise on the river against a line that looks a lot like a bluff-raise missed draw.

Not much happened in Level 5, then I put my chips to work in Level 6:

My Stack >50k, Seat 5 ~22k, Blinds 300/600/75, I hold AKo UTG.

I open for 1.6k, get 2 callers then Seat 5 makes it 4k in LP. I’ve been watching him for a while and he is an active player capable of making moves. He values position and has shown that he raises in-position to isolate. The other two callers don’t look strong and their stacks are all <20k. I observe Seat 5 for a minute or so and he doesn’t look super-strong. I feel my AK is good here and throw five 5k chips into the pot. The other two guys quickly get out of the way and he tank folds AQ.

A short-while later, I see Seat 5 open the pot to 1.7k and Seat 8 reraise him in-position to 5.1k with over 25k behind. Seat 8 has also been very active and has used his position to raise limpers and reraise pots on a frequent basis. He has the image of a player with lots of moves. From my prior observations of both players, I don’t feel that either one of them is strong here. Before I look at my cards, I seriously consider a sick 4-bet bluff here. It is a move that I rarely employ, but one that I know can work in the right situation and here is a perfect spot for it. I’m hoping to see something promising in my BB, just in case my reads are off and I get called, but when I see J4o, I lose heart and give up my thoughts on the play. Again, I think that’s a mistake here and I need to go with my gut more in spots like this. My play is basically a bluff so my cards are irrelevant. I should probably not have looked and just made the play.

After I folded, Seat 5 called and the flop was J54r. I was a little gutted to see that, although once again the flop is irrelevant: the play gets both players to fold pre-flop. Seat 5 makes a sick bluff on the flop with KQo and Seat 8 makes an equally sick call with 77. It gets even sicker when Seat 5 makes a runner-runner straight, but the point about this hand is that both players fold preflop if I make the 4-bet play here. I knew it was a good spot for it, but I just lost my heart when I saw my risible cards.

Feeling a little tilted about that missed opportunity, I tell myself I’m going to pull a sick bluff sometime soon. I soon get an opportunity:

My Stack ~56k, Seat 10 ~27k, Blinds 300/600/75, I hold 62o in SB.

Seat 1 busted and has been replaced by a new player. He’s been sat there for a while, but I’ve not seen him play a hand. He looks kinda competent. Perhaps in hindsight not the type of player that I should be bluffing, but when it folded to his button and he looked at his cards, it looked to me like he wasn’t sure about betting or folding. He then made it 1.7k and I’d already decided to 3-bet bluff here. I made it 4.5k to try to represent a big hand. He paused, looked undecided, but eventually called. Damn, but I wasn’t about to give up and when the dealer rolled out the AT4r flop, I felt that was a great one to c-bet 7.5k into ~10k representing a strong Ace. He paused, looked undecided again, but eventually made the call and the dealer turned an offsuit King. Double damn! He had only ~15k left and the pot was 25k. I looked at him and his stack and decided that there was no way he was folding now, so I gave up and checked. He paused again, then moved-in and I quickly folded, telling him that I had QQ and that he must have AT or TT. He wouldn’t tell me his hand at the time, but said it wasn’t either one of those. Later in the evening, he told me he had KK and wasn’t prepared to give up on the A-high flop. Bad read by me / good reverse tell by him preflop!

In Level 7, Seat 8 shoves his last 8k into the pot and I iso-raise to 18k with TT and manage to lose to a flush versus A6s to drop me down to ~35k. I then get moved to Seat 8 at a new table and have a German guy on my right, a friendly English guy on my left and a tricky Asian player in Seat 10. The rest of the table seems kinda solid. I get involved with the German guy:

My Stack ~36k, Seat 7 ~40k, Blinds 600/1200/100, I hold AA OTB.

He opens for 3k and I pop it up to 8k. He calls and then check-folds to my 12k bet on the T74cc flop and I’m back up to 50k. Into the next level, I play a pot versus the Asian kid:

My Stack ~50k, Seat 10 ~60k, Blinds 800/1600/200, I hold KK OTB.

I open for 4.1k and Seat 10 calls: Flop K93r. He checks and as there are no draws or anything to worry about I check behind to allow him to hopefully catch-up a little on the turn or try to bluff me. It’s a harmless offsuit 2 and he has a sneaky little 4.5k bet into the 11k pot. I’ve seen him make a few of these small bets before and I’m pretty sure he has nothing, so I just call to hopefully induce another bluff on the river. I fill-up with another 9 and he thinks for a while, but checks. I try 12k into 20k for value, but he folds.

My Stack ~60k, Seat 5 22.3k, Blinds 800/1600/200, I hold AJs in MP.

I open for 4.1k and it folds around to SB who shoves. It’s 18.1k for me to call to win ~30k so I’m getting good odds and only need 37.5% equity to call. Although he has played pretty tight and looks conservative, I don’t believe his range is only JJ+/AQ+ with this stack size. Even if it was my equity is 30%, so I just need a few weaker hands like TT/AT in there to put me ahead. It’s also arguable whether I should be taking such a marginal gamble when I know I’m likely to be behind, but the blind structure in this tourny gets pretty fast at this stage and I feel like I need to acquire chips. Leaving 39k behind is also ok as it still gives me some stack flexibility. So I call and lose versus JJ.

During 1000/2000/300 level it folds to A5s in my SB and the BB has 25k. I’ve chatted with him already and I know he is both competent and capable of correctly calling his range here, but its +EV to shove any Ace into this stack with the blinds and antes so high and I’m unfortunate that he wakes-up with JJ and knocks me down to 23k.

I shove twice with ATo to quickly rise to 33k. As we get into the 1500/3000/400 level, I manage to get it in four times, including reraising a LP raise and with no callers I’m soon up to 60k.

During this level, I chatted further with my English neighbour and he tells me his name: Jonathan Reynolds. He has some decent live results in relatively low buy-in tourneys and has been associated with Team Ladbrokes. He’s a nice guy and we get along quite well. When it folds to my SB again, I just complete this time and he checks behind: I have 92o. We check the board to the river and by then a fourth club has arrived (I have no club and no pair). There’s 10k in there and I make a small bluff bet of 3k. He tanks, almost calls and then says “No, I’m never good here” and folds what he told me was Kx6c. I show him my bluff and he rags on at me in a friendly way about how I fooled him there.

Towards the end of the level, I find myself in another somewhat marginal spot:

My Stack ~58k, Seat 5 ~33k, Blinds 1500/3000/400, I hold 99 in MP

I open for 7k. I’d meant to make it 8k, but I picked-up the wrong number of chips. It folds around to the same guy I’d doubled-up with JJ earlier and he shoves on me again. This time the odds are even sweeter as it is only 26k to call to win 47k, so I only need 36%. Although he has played very tight since I last doubled him up, I still put his range here as something like TT+/AJ+ and I’m 41%. With my stack utility severely damaged if I lose here there may be some who can argue for a tight fold, but with a 5% equity edge I think that’s just too juicy to pass-up in a tourney where I’d only be left with 17BBs if I fold and blinds going up soon. So I call and again I lose versus JJ. Sigh.

At 2000/4000/500, I’ve got exactly 30k after posting my ante and see K8o in MP. There are ~50 players left and 27 pays. The table is tight so I feel I’ve got plenty of fold equity here and they need a big hand to call. I notice it’s the guy who I’ve doubled-up twice sitting on the BB and jokingly tell him I’m definitely going busto to him on this hand before I shove in. It duly folds to his BB and he calls me with AK and holds. In those three showdowns versus the same player, I was way behind each time, but cumulatively I have a 60% chance of winning one of those hands. Kinda sucks that I couldn’t hit that percentage, but that seems to be how I’m running

I’m writing this a couple of days after the event and I accidentally deleted the few notes that I made in my phone during play, so it’s all a bit hazy, but here goes for another $1500 NLHE WSOP Event at the Rio.

I got a nice, friendly table draw with mostly straightforward middle-aged guys, not too tricky, except for Seat 5, two to my left, who was a young guy with a few moves. Later a young Scandi moved into the busted Seat 9 and he made a few standard internet plays, such as shoving 10-15BBs over limpers and re-raising all-in over a LP raise with 15-20BBs.

I got-off to an unusually good start, winning a few pots during the first two levels, including getting paid-off nicely with KK on a K55xx board versus a guy who said he had A5. I had over 10k at the first break, which is the first time I’ve ever had a five-figure chip-stack in a WSOP Side Event.

Unfortunately things cooled-off in the second session and I bled-off a little to ~8k at the second break. During the session before dinner, I was completely card-dead and every time I tried to steal a pot opening from MP or LP, I got 3-bet either by Seat 4 or Seat 5. I went to dinner with just under 6k.

Coming back with blinds at 200/400/50, the Scandi opens for 975 from the HJ seat. Although he does not play like a maniac, he has been fairly active and has opened a few pots from LP. I might have been suspicious of his bet size into my obvious re-stealing stack, but with AJo my hand was too strong to ever consider folding. So I got it in and he snapped me with AK and held to knock me out around 30 minutes after dinner, which is just about as long as I lasted earlier in the series.

It’s another year of failing to cash in WSOP Side Events. The structures are much better than previous years (with the extra chips) and I’ve had a lot more play than before, but I was never able to get my stack going into the 15-20k+ range where I could comfortably get through Day 1.

I just can't seem to get anything going early in these Bellagio tourneys. There are a lot of weak players splashing chips around, but none of them coming to me.

Really not much to report about the tourney except my last hand:

My Stack ~11k, Seat 10 ~25k, Blinds 100/200/25, I hold 33 UTG

It's the last hand before the break and then the blinds go up to 200/400/25. As such, it's pretty much my last chance to limp a hand like this from EP with my stack size. It's a limpfest and eight players see the flop:

Pot 1800
Flop JhTs3h

I bet 1200, he makes it 3.5k, I reraise all-in and he beats me into the pot. I just know he's got a straight+flush combo-draw and he shows me Qh9h. I ask the dealer to pair the board, but the 2h hits the turn, I brick the river and I'm out, another lost coin-flip (actually I am 60/40 fav).